The Food Club Alert Board

[Kat]

SHRIEKS

I BUSTED

PROBABLY SHOULD'VE FOLLOWED PHOENIX'S BETS but oh well

EDIT: On the flip side, sold that Tyrannian Paint Brush. No more betting 100k for now. *LIES DOWN*

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Thanks Fraze! I'll add your post to the first page if you don't mind ^^;

It's okay, Kat, Phoenix busted today too (and I with him). So did Oliver, Sidney, and many moderate-risk bettors. The reason is because there were 2 upsets, and both happened in the arenas where the 2:1 was the most favored to win. :/

The safe set I posted yesterday would've profited by ~27K at a return of ~15:10. Ahhh well.


New safe set is up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

For my actual bets, I am continuing to follow Phoenix's unlimited set. If it tanks again tomorrow, that will be day 10 in a row of tanking. XD; But the win from May 25 was so big that it can still sustain me through a few days more of tanking. Hopefully the next win isn't too far away, though. xP

[Kat]

Yikes. Major yikes. I'm still following Garet, we'll see how this goes.

[Kat]

DOUBLE MAJOR YIKES, bust city again. What the banana.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Sighh, it was another one of those "many people busted" days lol. Sidney made room to cover the double upset though and won 36:10.

Whoever followed my safe set would've made a tiny profit of 3K.

New safe set up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

And I am on day 10 of busting with Phoe's unlimited set. Hoping this losing streak will end soon.

[Kat]

I hope the losing streak ends soon, Stephanie! Not sure if this is my cue to try following Phoenix's bets for a change, though.

I feel like from now on, if the odds are too good, it should be a big fat red flag.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Jun 4, 2020 23:51:25 GMT -5 Kat said:

Not sure if this is my cue to try following Phoenix's bets for a change, though.

I wouldn't recommend it unless you can afford to lose many days in a row. I mean, even though there already is a losing streak going on, doesn't mean it will end soon, because each outcome is separate. It's like if you throw a coin and it keeps landing face up. Doesn't mean the next throw it will land face down. Even though in the long term (like let's say over hundreds of tosses) the chances of heads or tails are roughly equal, the individual tosses are independent outcomes.

Jun 4, 2020 23:51:25 GMT -5 Kat said:

I feel like from now on, if the odds are too good, it should be a big fat red flag.

I definitely agree with that, lol.

[Fraze]

Meanwhile the max TER bets returned 108:10, one bet returned 36:1 and another 72:1. (Posting right before the next round closes, so if it gets confusing I'm talking about the same round that the last few posts have been discussing.) I was fully expecting to bust this time, so this was a nice surprise.

(Meanwhile the max TER bets have a habit of busting when like everyone else gets a moderate/big win so it kind of balances out.)

Jun 4, 2020 23:51:25 GMT -5 Kat said:

I hope the losing streak ends soon, Stephanie! Not sure if this is my cue to try following Phoenix's bets for a change, though.

I feel like from now on, if the odds are too good, it should be a big fat red flag.

I'd still suggest sticking with Garet if you're looking for consistency. Losing streaks happen but he has one of the best track records overall.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Congrats on that win, Fraze! Sounds like you're using a strategy very similar to Phoenix's. His bets are generated by an engine that calculates the best TER within a given range based on 8 years' worth of Food Club data here: www.neopets.com/~Thoricanian



I'm too lazy to make my own max TER bets so I just follow the set that he posts for young accounts every day (The range for that set is 12:1 to 186:1.)

Day 11 in a row of busting for me currently. Still following. :K


In the meantime, the safe set I posted yesterday would've profited by 13K at a return of around 13:10.

Garet's and Sidney's sets hit the same safety as mine and won 14:10 (because they weighted all bets the same).

New safe bets are up early because the opening odds were good enough to make a guaranteed-profit set: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Jun 5, 2020 17:19:54 GMT -5 Fraze said:

I'd still suggest sticking with Garet if you're looking for consistency. Losing streaks happen but he has one of the best track records overall.

If consistency is number-one priority (win every day) then my safe bets are the best. x) But they are not the most profitable in the long run.

So I second the suggestion to keep following Garet. His is probably the best balance between winning often and winning a nice amount in the long run.

[Kat]

Congrats, Fraze! And ouch, I'm so sorry to hear that, Stephanie (swordlilly). Thank you both for the recommendation to follow Garet until I'm confident enough to do my own bets.

Didn't bet so much this time around but at least I finally won.

[Kat]

BREATHES SIGH OF RELIEF

28:10. Not bad at all. Bet history still good. Finally at 2M in the bank, time to continue side-eyeing my stamp collection. (I COULD probably buy another one but not now, need to make sure I still have enough money left over after another massive purchase.)

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

My actual bets (following Phoe's unlimited set) busted again. I'm committed to following this set at least until the end of this month, though. Looking at older data, the method has never come out negative over the course of a whole month.

Whoever followed my safe set would've profited by 49316 np at a return of 1.98 (nearly 20:10).

New safe bets are up! www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

I'm continuing to compare the daily results on my spreadsheet, which I will screenshot and upload to www.neopets.com/~Coconori every so often

[Kat]

I hope things start looking up for you, Stephanie. Even if it won't be negative on the long run, it can be blegh to keep getting busts. I don't think I can handle that.

Garet is 10-betting Dan today. The odds for that arena seem good but I might insert a safety in case there is somehow an Upset.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Thanks, Kat! I'll probably switch to Phoe's regular set after this month. The unlimited set is tanking far too often for my liking xP

[Kat]

slams my bets in and runs to write more poetry so I can have another somewhat stable form of income