The Food Club Alert Board

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Oh no! Sorry to hear. You're still doing well overall, right? If you go to your Bet History, it'll show you how much you've bet and how much you've won overall.

[doctortomoe]

Double upsets happen. Truthfully, on the boards, phoenix thought Goobs would lose.

But it was a double upset instead.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoenix's regular set which he uses with his 20+ year old account (odds 12:1 - 70:1) won 40:10 today. His alternate set for younger accounts (odds 12:1 - 186:1), which I followed, busted the fifth day in a row. Ahhh well. I'm still holding on to 180:60. Two days left in the trophy run.

Garet won 48:10, his biggest win in a while.

The safe set I posted yesterday would've profited by ~21K at a return of about 14:10.


Here's the safe set I designed for tomorrow, in case anyone would like to follow:



Zero chance of busting, as usual. Investment is 50K, minimum profit 700np, max possible ~54K, most likely ~14K.

Good luck everyone betting!

[doctortomoe]

I had made 64:10 yesterday, which on the FC board was the highest tied for that day.

[Moni]

40:10* yesterday. neat!

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoenix won 39:10 today with his regular set. Unfortunately, I followed the set that he made for younger accounts, and that one busted. ;(

Garet and Sidney also busted.

The safe set I posted yesterday would've profited by ~36K at a return of about 17:10.


Here's a new safe set I designed for tomorrow:



Investment is 50K, minimum profit 700np, max possible ~171K, most likely around 20K.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoenix's regular set won 32:10 today. His unlimited set (the one I followed) busted. Garet and Sidney got 16:10.

I collected 180:80. At my account age though, even if I'd followed Phoe's regular set throughout the past week, I would've ended up with a 2.5 million collect, which was just below the bronze trophy cutoff this month (2.6 million). So, I made the correct choice to follow the riskier set. It just happened not to hit often enough within one week for me to get a trophy this time. x)

The bets I posted yesterday would've profited by ~20K at a return of 1.4.

Here's a new set of safe bets I designed for tomorrow:



Investment is 50K, minimum profit 700np, max possible 51K, most likely ~20K.


Btw, for my own personal betting, I am switching to a riskier strategy from now on! From consulting with the data here and here, and chatting with other bettors, I've learned that all strategies with an overall return of 1.8 or higher have some risk in them.

The simplest mathematical explanation for this I can think of is that, with the guaranteed-profit strat, you have 1 bet that wins every time, but you also have 9 bets that are guaranteed to lose. So even though on a daily basis you can avoid losing, in the long term you're actually missing out on greater wins. For people with enough NPs saved up to bet through the losing streaks, accepting some losses here and there actually works out to be more profitable in the long term.

I'm still going to keep posting the safe bets because for now I find it interesting to do them. x) Also, I've received Neomails from people saying that they appreciate them. Just know that I am no longer following my own safe bets

[Kat]

Sorry for being invisible from this thread; Proboards wouldn't let me post and kept giving me errors.

Anyway, I still have a good bet history going on, I busted and won and busted again and won again. Might still continue to follow Garet for now depending on how I feel about his bets. And honestly it makes sense that there's always a risk. I mean, for the most part I've won with Garet's bets and yours, Stephanie, but I've also had days when I busted or safety'd the wrong arena.

[Kat]

Zoinks. Busted. Good thing I only shelled out 60k NP. Also I won a Tyrannian Paint Brush from the Fyora Day poetry gallery so it'll make up for my loss.

Man, I need to be constantly in the Poetry Competition again so I can sell these items that'll pull me up whenever I bust.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

I busted today too, following Phoenix's unlimited set. The safe bets I posted yesterday would've won 51K at a return of about 20:10.

Here's some interesting data I collected over the past month though. It's basically: how much would I have won if I consistently followed one betting strategy throughout the month? (The yellow boxes show the choices I actually made on a day-to-day basis.)



My safe set would've won only 700K over the long term. Following Garet would've yielded about 2 million. Following Phoenix's regular set would've yielded 5 million, while following his risky set for young accounts would've yielded close to 3 million.

Really interesting to think about! I feel like the sample size is still too small though so I'm going to try to keep up the data-collecting in the coming months.

Anyway, new safe bets are up at www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Too lazy to continue screenshotting But next round's odds are super good, so good that Garet is betting in a way that's very uncharacteristic of him o.O Even Phoenix's unlimited bets are safer than Garet's this time around.



Btw, Kat , what time-frame do you follow for submitting to a themed poetry gallery these days? And what category do you submit it under?

I had tried submitting a poem for Lutari Day under Neopian Holidays but never heard anything back, so I kinda got discouraged and stopped trying lol. Maybe I submitted too early or too late? I suspect they never even read it :/

[Kat]

Uh-oh, should I look at Phoenix's bets this time? Too-good odds might be exactly that, too good to be true.

Stephanie (swordlilly), I submitted under Neopian Holidays and usually I submit like, a day before the holiday by NST time. Maybe we submitted back then during a time when Aesop was still finding his footing. Or in my case, I submitted too early. I'm on three for three now so it seems to be working.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Probably Phoenix's, or Sidney's if you're able to wait till she posts at around 12ish hours from now. Or, you could follow the instructions on Garet's petpage and create a safer version of what he posted. He said himself that his bets this time around have a ~46% chance of tanking XD;

And that's good to know! Thanks, I may try for JubJub Day then

[Kat]

Jun 2, 2020 22:42:37 GMT -5 Stephanie (swordlilly) said:

Probably Phoenix's, or Sidney's if you're able to wait till she posts at around 12ish hours from now. Or, you could follow the instructions on Garet's petpage and create a safer version of what he posted. He said himself that his bets this time around have a ~46% chance of tanking XD;

And that's good to know! Thanks, I may try for JubJub Day then

Good luck to us! I'm one away from 60 poetry wins so I'm going to shoot for JubJub Day as well.

I looked at Garet's...oh wow he really is going all out. Phoenix's does look safer, but maybe I can just follow the instructions on Garet's page. The reckless side of me is all, "At least 46% is less than 50%, right?" And I need to slap that side of me. WHAP.

[Fraze]

Not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet, but foodclub.neocities.org/ is a pretty nice bet-generating tool. You can use it to fiddle around with making bets, seeing the potential payouts AND seeing the probabilies of different payouts coming through. (The Neodaq site used to have a similar tool before it went under, rip.)

Even better, the site can automatically generate bets with the maximum total expected return; ie, the mathematically ideal bets that in the long run would get you the maximum possible winnings. This does means that the bets tend to be higher risk than, say, Garet's bets. They tank more than half the time, and sometimes return less than you bet (such as getting 2:10 or 6:10). But if you have a large enough bankroll that you aren't worried about short-term losses, it's a pretty good way to go.

Also it's worth noting that the Max TER bets are calculated based on the NP you stand to earn, not the ratio. This means that it generates a set tailored to your max bet amount, since you can't win more than 1 million NP from a given bet. For example, a five-pirate 160:1 bet will return the maximum 1M NP with a bet of 6250 NP or more. But if your max bet is 12500 or more, you could just as well drop a 2:1 pirate from that bet and get an 80:1 bet that's safer but will still return the 1M. I appreciate that flexibility because I have a pretty high max bet.

[Kat]

Ooh, that's worth looking at, Fraze! I'm probably not yet confident enough to make my own bets since I usually just follow others' bets or combine them when I'm not feeling very good about them, but maybe one day...and when I have more money I can burn. It doesn't really help that I have very expensive goals right now (stamp collecting...cries)