The Food Club Alert Board

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoe's regular set won 96:10 today. As for his unlimited set...




There is something so strange about getting so lucky on the thirteenth day. XD Twelve days of busts finally led to this.

This actually puts me within range of a bronze trophy in the middle of the month! I might try following Garet or Sidney the next few days to try and get the extra couple of hundred K needed. (Bronze cutoff is currently 2.7 million and likely to keep increasing the next few days as people collect their holds.)


Meanwhile, the opening odds for next round look bad, so I'll wait till later this evening to post a new safe set.

[Kat]

Congrats, Stephanie! It finally pays off...but at such an emotional cost.

Doubled my money; I just belatedly realized why Garet bet the way he did, followed it to the letter, and it was worth it. I now have enough money to keep betting a bit without touching the 2M in the bank, especially with the Altador Cup being a steady source of NP.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

New safe bets are up for whoever would like to reference them :3 www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Whoever followed last round would've profited by 4K at a return of close to 1.1.

For next round, this set's initial investment is 50K, minimum profit 2K, max possible 132K, most likely 10K - 21K (return of 1.2 to 1.4). Interestingly enough, the most likely return is the same as the TER (total expected return) for Phoe's set (1.3). TER means that if these exact same opening odds were repeated thousands of times, and you kept betting according to Phoe's set, you would sometimes win a lot and sometimes win nothing, but ultimately come out with a profit of around 1.3. It's a bit of a dizzying concept to wrap your mind around because there is in fact only one round, not thousands. xd But, theoretically, that's how TER is calculated.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Both of Phoe's sets tanked today. Garet won 16:10, Sidney won 12:10, and Oliver won 16:10.

Thankfully, I followed Garet. I am now holding a little over 2.5M, still not quite enough yet for bronze. Hopefully I can win enough over the next few days to get into trophy range.


Whoever followed my safe set last round would've profited by 18K at a return of nearly 1.4.

New safe set is up! www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

[Kat]

Not bad. I followed Garet too and I was pleasantly surprised.

GO GO STEPHANIE YOU GOT THIS

[Kat]

How I feel hitting it big on Food Club:

SPOILER: Click to show

Also sold the Moltenore from the Poetry Competition so I'm sitting at a nice delicious 4.6M in the bank. I have enough to buy another stamp...might prioritize that single Sword of Apocalypse Stamp in the TP.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Nice!

I followed Garet last round too ^o^ Made it to bronze trophy!!!



Woot woot!


Phoenix's regular set won 24:10, while his unlimited set tanked. A number of others who bet risky also tanked. Garet, Sidney and Oliver got 36:10.

Whoever followed my safe set would've won 22:10.

New safe set is up! www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Odds for next round are looking good.

[Kat]

Congratulations, you did it! Just gonna wait for the dude with the stamp to get back to me.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Today, Garet, Sidney and Oliver all won 24:10. Phoenix won 16:10. I had followed Phoenix this time around.


Also, Garet sent me a congratulatory gift!



I tried sending him a Thanks card but his inventory was full. Tried sending a Neomail but his inbox was full. Ahhh well. He's a popular guy after all xd


Tomorrow's odds are unusually bad. Garet announced a skip day. Phoe's algorithm figured out a set with a paltry TER of 1.03. I'm trying to decide between skipping or following Phoe for the lolz.

[Kat]

Nice, Stephanie! I won after betting the max amount I could bet, also I'm on my way to scoring my 21st stamp on my NQII page! Just need to wait for my offers to be accepted.

Guess I'll take this time to use my Black Market Goods boon and see if I can try to restock.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

I ended up taking the risk to follow Phoe. I'm glad I did; he won 16:10 today. XD; Sidney also won 16:10, and Oliver won 20:10.

Next round's odds are looking better. New guaranteed-profit set is up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

For my own bets, I think I will stick with Phoe's regular set.

[Kat]

Even with my stamp purchase, I think I can afford to bet the maximum amount possible this time around. Hopefully by the end of this month I'll have enough to try for a trophy. Gonna put this ancient account to GOOD USE

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoe, Garet and Sidney all busted today. Since I'm following Phoe, I busted too.

My safe set would've profited by 20K at a return of around 1.4 (or 14:10).

New safe set is up! Earlier than usual because the opening odds for next round are already good enough to make a guaranteed-profit set: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata


I'm continuing to update my spreadsheet and will upload to www.neopets.com/~Coconori at month's end. So far though, the results are matching my hypothesis: risky strategies (that go all-in on just the pirates with the best expected return every round) bust more often, but actually end up more profitable in the long run than safe strategies (which cover a variety of possibilities every round).

Knowing that, the bust days aren't so bad.

[Kat]

I busted too, but oh well, it doesn't sting so bad after not busting for a while.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoe busted today (and I with him). His bets do have a 60% bust rate though, so I kinda expected that. Sidney lost as well. Garet won 26:10.

My safe set would've profited by 4K.

New safe set is up early because next round's odds are already good enough to make a guaranteed-profit set: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

I wonder if Garet will bet super risky next round x) Guess we'll see when he updates this evening.