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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 27, 2020 19:07:59 GMT -5
So, according to Morris's data, out of the 46 sets that were shared on the boards and offsite, a whopping 41 sets busted. That's got to be a record XD;
Even my "guaranteed-profit" set lost nps because the 6:1 turned back into a 5:1 and became no longer profitable.
When you're chasing a trophy though, it makes sense to bet all of the 8 days to get the highest score possible. Who knows, you just might get lucky!
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Post by Kat on Jun 27, 2020 19:14:38 GMT -5
Ouch. But yeah, that's why I placed bets. I thought maybe I'd get lucky. Anyway my winnings can still cover the total amount of NP I've sunk into the trophy run.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 28, 2020 18:01:55 GMT -5
Phoenix hit 126:10 today. O: At my account age, that would've been over a million. Older accounts would've hit well over 1.5 million. The sad thing is, I didn't follow him this round! XD I actually hesitated until after 3pm NST because the odds were just so bad. *sigh* Much regrets I went with my own safe bets and profited by 3K. At least it's better than not betting, I guess.
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Post by Kat on Jun 28, 2020 19:31:39 GMT -5
I probably should've followed Phoenix's bets but the odds turned me off HAHAHA oh well. Busted.
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Post by doctortomoe on Jun 28, 2020 21:33:12 GMT -5
I didn't bet. I don't usually follow Phoenix anyway though.
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Post by Kat on Jun 29, 2020 22:38:29 GMT -5
Busted again. I have a feeling this trophy run is also a bust LASJDFLJADSF
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Post by Kat on Jul 1, 2020 19:37:56 GMT -5
Rats. I won't be able to make the high score table this month. All the trophy standings stand at 3M+ and I only have 1.3M. Even if I go one more round without collecting, I won't make it. I'll make it into the table but not to a trophy.
I could keep trying throughout the month but my chances are slim. Might be better for me to put this off for end of July.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jul 2, 2020 12:39:17 GMT -5
Yeah, it does look like the hiscore table is filled with Phoenix followers. o: After many busts in the first three weeks of June (19 busts, to be exact), during trophy week Phoenix scored 80:10 on Jun 26, 126:10 on Jun 28, and 72:10 on Jul 1 (which I managed to catch). If someone's max bet amount were like, 11K, then they would've collected more than 3 million total from the trophy week hold. Hopefully next reset will be kinder for you, Kat! Also, I announced this in the Discord but will put it here as well x) I've updated my comparative data page on www.neopets.com/~Coconori Apparently, the daily choices I made over the past two months (sometimes betting safe, sometimes betting risky) actually averaged out to almost exactly the same as if I'd just followed Garet's moderate-risk set every single day. It's quite fascinating to think about!
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Post by Kat on Jul 2, 2020 21:52:14 GMT -5
Well, at least today was kinder to me. 20:10, I think.
I could try to follow Phoenix during my next trophy run but there's a possibility that I'm going to bust for the straight run before hitting something.
ALSO, I think I can finally unload some NP on the next NQII stamp on my list. Maybe I should spruce up a petpage to turn into a "Why You Should Sell Kat Your NQII Stamps" page.
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Post by Kat on Jul 4, 2020 23:00:07 GMT -5
Garet declared a skip day. How bad is the damage, and should I skip as well?
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jul 4, 2020 23:57:46 GMT -5
Right now it does look really bad. On a good day, there is usually at least one arena priced at 2-13-13-13 (meaning, the 2:1 is highly favored to win against three 13:1 opponents). And without needing to stack any other arenas, you can profit from single-bet safeties.
Okayish odds will have one arena looking something like 2-6-10-13. So if you pair the 6:1 with another 2:1 for example, you can still have a profitable safety (12:1).
Right now, the "best" arena is Harpoon Harry's, priced at 2-3-6-13. This is really bad for two reasons: A) you can't make any profitable safeties, and B) the 2:1's chances of winning are not as high as you would like.
Both Garet and JK (a newly popular bettor recently added to /~Yehoodi) are skipping. If the odds improve in the morning, I will make a set, but otherwise I am skipping as well.
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Post by Kat on Jul 5, 2020 0:04:33 GMT -5
Ew. Maybe I'll skip and do a lot of flash games today instead.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jul 5, 2020 17:58:29 GMT -5
This morning Treasure Island went briefly from 2-4-6-10 to 3-4-6-10, so I made this guaranteed-profit set, basically pairing the 2:1 and 3:1 in Harpoon Harry's with all 4 pirates in Treasure Island, and then putting 2 single-bet safeties on the remaining 2 pirates in Harpoon Harry's. And then right as I was about to follow my own guaranteed-profit set, THE ODDS SHIFTED AGAIN and the lowest-odd pirate in Treasure Island went back down to 2:1. (This made my planned 6:1 and 9:1 bets go down to 4:1 and 6:1 respectively, hence no longer profitable.) So I was like, forget it. I checked back again at 3:30pm NST and the odds were still crummy. I was going to skip, but I really hate skipping. At the very last second I decided to follow Phoenix. And this happened. ... This man's algorithm is uncanny, I'm telling you. XD;
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Post by Kat on Jul 7, 2020 20:16:47 GMT -5
Tried to follow Phoenix today when Garet skipped, not surprised that I got a bust.
Ah well.
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Post by Strider on Jul 8, 2020 18:15:13 GMT -5
Garet's bets today landed me 323k
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