The Food Club Alert Board

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Kat, for you I think it is best to keep following Garet at max nps per bet every day. My safe set is best for people who are poorer (less than 1M in the bank), or who sometimes forget to bet (so like, if they forget on a winning day and don't forget on a losing day, the profits wouldn't work out).

I recall one week many years ago when all the moderate-risk bettors including Garet lost for 7 days straight, but that was an extremely rare occurrence. If you look at the daily results on www.neopets.com/~Yehoodi you should have a good idea of how much profit to expect over how much time.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

New guaranteed-profit set is up! The 5:1s changed into 6:1s as of this morning, which made this possible: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

I've also updated my personal data page: www.neopets.com/~Coconori

Quick summary:
Following my own safe bets throughout the past month-and-a-half would've earned me a little over 1 million.
Following Garet would've earned me 2.7 million.
Following Phoenix's regular set would've earned me 5.3 million.
Following his unlimited set would've earned me 4.5 million.

The bust rate for the safe set was 0%.
For Garet's moderate-risk set, it was 29% (12 out of 41 days tracked).
For Phoenix's regular set, it was 59% (24 out of 41 days tracked).
For his unlimited set, it was 73% (30 out of 41 days tracked).

[Kat]

Yeah, I think I can start betting everyday at max especially after scoring today. Might have to hold off on stamp collecting if I'll be gunning for a trophy, though. Need to expect the worst.

I just hope I don't run into a skip day. Or maybe for that I'll go for Phoenix's bets.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Phoe advised me to prepare for a 2-week losing streak when following him, so I have about 1.5M set aside strictly for betting purposes. (My personal max bet amount per day is a little less than 9K per bet.)

So far I am happy with the results of following him, even though the bust rate is really high. He busted again today, for example. I just have to remember to be consistent about betting and hold on to the knowledge that it pays out in the long term.

Entering the daily data in the spreadsheet helps. xd Makes the losses feel like just another row of data rather than losses. It's weird how human psychology works; I thought I was winning a lot with my safe strat but I was actually losing out on millions of potential profit by cutting the risk to zero every day.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

After four days of busting, Phoe's set hit a really nice 72:10 today!



Garet and Sidney both won 40:10.

My safe set would've profited by ~72K nps at a ratio of approx. 24:10.

Next round's opening odds are looking good! I'm going to wait till evening to design a new safe set, though.

[Kat]

Nice, congratulations! I got my nice 40:10 and if I can hit it like this again, I'll be up to 3M. The temptation to impulse buy stuff is rising, though.

[Kat]

and WHOOPS it's a bust. (It's like a sign telling me to STOP MAKING IMPULSE PLUSHIE PURCHASES)

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Jun 18, 2020 19:42:00 GMT -5 Kat said:

and WHOOPS it's a bust. (It's like a sign telling me to STOP MAKING IMPULSE PLUSHIE PURCHASES)

Hehe, well, Garet's long-term return on investment, according to /~Yehoodi, is around 1.8 to 1.9. That means, on average, you're looking at a profit of 19:10 per day. So if you don't spend more than that per day, you'll be snowballing nps in the long run.

Phoe busted today but that's okay. Even though his bust rate is around 60%, his 2019 return was 1.96.

My safe set would've profited by a humble ~21K at a ratio of about 14:10. New safe set up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Good luck tomorrow!

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Looks like Garet hit it super big today with 64:10. xd Sidney got 52:10. Phoenix sadly got nothing. Ahhh well. I still believe that Phoenix's R.O.I. is slightly better in the long run, though (not according to /~Yehoodi's data, but that includes rounds from before Phoenix had his current model).

Anyways, my safe set would've profited at a ratio of approx. 14:10. New safe set is up early since the opening odds are already good enough to make one: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

Good luck everyone betting tomorrow!

[Kat]

SCREAMS

SCREAMS!!!

THIS IS THE MOST I EVER MADE FROM A SINGLE ROUND OF FOOD CLUB...820352 NP...Garet got 4 of the arenas. I have enough to buy another stamp but nnnnnnn too close to trophy run.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Congrats!! I felt that way too when I had my first big FC win!

[Kat]

I celebrated by buying a few stamps (not very expensive ones, mind) and a couple more plushies. I had no idea there was a Skeith Judge Plushie to go with the Aisha Lawyer, so oops. My hand slipped.

[Kat]

After hitting 20:10, Garet's calling a skip day. So I'mma skip too.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

The odds last night were terrible, but this morning they're looking better, so I made a new safe set: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata

It's guaranteed profit, but the likeliest outcome is like 1K profit. XDD; There is a chance of highrolling up to 44K profit, though.

Phoenix has a new set up too but he is ten-betting Admiral (who has only a 17% chance of winning).

Ughhh I'm actually considering just following my own safe bets this round. Commitment issues

[Kat]

Since you're done with your trophy run, it can't hurt to go back to your own bets for a while especially with Phoenix's high bust rate.