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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 21, 2020 23:22:43 GMT -5
I ended up going with my own bets, won a small profit of 1K. Glad I did; Phoenix lost. New guaranteed-profit set is up: www.neopets.com/~SunniataThe odds for next round are marginally better than last round's. Garet is betting but says he does not have high expectations. Phoenix hasn't come online yet.
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Post by Kat on Jun 22, 2020 19:26:12 GMT -5
Busted, but oh well. Not surprising. I placed my bets anyway last night in the event something happens.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 22, 2020 22:53:45 GMT -5
Man, three days in a row of less-than-ideal odds. I ended up following my own safe set; glad I did. Won a tiny profit of 1.6K. All of my favorite bettors busted. New guaranteed-profit set is up: www.neopets.com/~SunniataMax possible profit is only ~25K.
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Post by doctortomoe on Jun 23, 2020 1:56:37 GMT -5
It happens.
Yesterday was also a rare Stuff win day, so he should be good for another month.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 23, 2020 22:46:40 GMT -5
Starting from Round 7719, it will be the beginning of the July trophy run!! Good luck Kat!! Last round, my safe set profited by 18K at a return of a little less than 14:10. New safe set is up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata
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Post by Kat on Jun 24, 2020 20:53:55 GMT -5
Rats, a bust on the first day of my trophy run. Oh well, there are still several days to go.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 24, 2020 22:57:20 GMT -5
Phoenix busted too. :c He's having a really bad month. Last month seems to have been unusually good.
My safe set would've profited at a ratio of exactly 12:10.
Next round's odds are looking crappy again. I'll check back in the morning and if they continue to be bad then I'll announce a skip on my petpage.
I'm curious how the odds will shift tomorrow. Generally during trophy-run week there are some folks who bet in unusually risky ways and cause weird shifts.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 25, 2020 23:54:51 GMT -5
Next round's odds are really good. I've posted a guaranteed-profit set as always: www.neopets.com/~SunniataI'm going to be following Phoenix though since his algorithm says the expected return next round is over 4, which is unusually high.
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Post by Kat on Jun 25, 2020 23:57:50 GMT -5
Good luck, Stephanie!
Trophy run has officially begun today with four of Garet's bets giving me 18:10 so now I have to refrain from collecting them
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 26, 2020 21:36:21 GMT -5
Phoenix won 80:10 today ^o^ And our article in the collab issue is out too! Today is a happy day. www.neopets.com/ntimes/index.phtml?section=581347&issue=905Although, looking back on it, I did notice one tiny mistake / oversight. ^^; The number Phoenix posts on the boards is not exactly the same as what offsite bettors (on FCNC) refer to as TER. Phoe's number is more like "average expected return," whereas TER is "total expected return." Ahhh well. The concept of "expected return" is the same though. Update: Garet is skipping next round. As of right now, the odds are still so bad that it is not possible to make a guaranteed-profit set for my bets page. Kat, if you want to try for a win next round to increase your trophy score, you can follow the option that Garet posted. Or, here is another betting page I know of with a similar betting style that's already updated: Kelly's bets. Christie and Sidney also have moderate-risk betting styles, but they haven't updated for the next round yet. Update again: Odds shifted! The 4:1 in Lucky's arena became a 6:1. New guaranteed-profit set up: www.neopets.com/~Sunniata
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Post by Kat on Jun 27, 2020 1:17:32 GMT -5
Yeah, even if the odds are not very nice, I'm still betting anyway just in case (like today, Garet managed to win despite the arenas looking like traps). But thanks for the other options!
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Post by doctortomoe on Jun 27, 2020 5:16:07 GMT -5
Wish I could have seen what the arena's originally looked like before I jumped right in
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Post by Kat on Jun 27, 2020 8:23:35 GMT -5
Bets placed. I shall expect the worst.
Currently sitting at more than 900k in winnings, at least. If the succeeding days are better, I still have a shot.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on Jun 27, 2020 12:39:25 GMT -5
Wish I could have seen what the arena's originally looked like before I jumped right in I'm not sure how early Morris updated his page for round 7722, but if he caught the opening odds then they were: Shipwreck 4-4-3-3 Lagoon 13-2-13-2 Treasure Island 7-5-7-2 Hidden Cove 2-8-13-3 Harpoon Harry's 6-12-4-2 The odds are fluctuating a lot, though. I guess it is trophy week after all xd
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Post by Kat on Jun 27, 2020 19:04:52 GMT -5
laughs quietly in BUSTED
Probably should've skipped as well but eh.
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