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Post by Kat on May 14, 2020 20:14:55 GMT -5
Whoo, doubled me money today. Bet 50k because I was determined to keep that 1M intact in the bank, got 100k.
If the next odds are good, I might take that entire 100k to the bets today.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on May 14, 2020 23:33:39 GMT -5
I got the 20K win I expected. I didn't feel comfortable doing what Garet did, since it meant omitting all of Gooblah's competitors. If Buck won, or if either of the other two pirates in Gooblah's arena won, the whole set of bets would have tanked. But the risk paid off for those who were brave.  Odds are looking good again! Following Garet is a good choice, mathematically speaking; his lifetime R.O.I. is above 1.8, whereas mine is only 1.55 (possibly lower, since it includes bets from before I started doing the safe strategy). My way of betting is more for daily peace of mind than profit.  I found that when I bet with risk, I would keep worrying about it at the back of my mind throughout the day, and if I lost, then my mood would drop. That's why I switched to the safe strategy. But yeah, everyone has different tolerance for risk. ^^; Anyway, here's what I'm doing for the next round! For whoever may be interested in looking / comparing strategies.  The investment is 50K, minimum profit is 1K, max possible is 130K. Most likely outcome is 20K profit. Zero risk of tanking. Good luck everyone betting! |
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Post by Kat on May 14, 2020 23:44:51 GMT -5
I understand that, Stephanie. You might have noticed that after I got the hang of this, I started to bet more for profit because *SHAKES VERY EXPENSIVE NQII STAMPS, THE LAST 5 I NEED ARE WORTH WELL OVER 80M IN TOTAL*
Although if the odds are not so good, I pull back a bit or even skip.
Also, it doesn't really bother me as much because I bet before I sleep, and when I wake up, that's when I look at what happened to my bets. I try not to expect too much as well because hey, even if the odds are good, there's always the risk of an upset. (Yes, I know what an upset is now!)
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Post by Kat on May 15, 2020 20:08:19 GMT -5
Oh, not bad. Got a 40k profit.
How are the odds looking today? I'm still trying to preserve a good chunk of my bank account in preparation for the hidden tower discount next week and also as seed money for the next stamp on my list.
Sword of Apocalypse stamp, more like it's gonna cause an apocalypse in my account. SMH.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on May 15, 2020 23:33:13 GMT -5
Got a 6K profit today. How are the odds looking today? I'm still trying to preserve a good chunk of my bank account in preparation for the hidden tower discount next week and also as seed money for the next stamp on my list. Sword of Apocalypse stamp, more like it's gonna cause an apocalypse in my account. SMH. Eeeesh, I feel your pain. I'm trying to save up for a Shenkuu Stamp. Odds for next round are crazy good! There are going to be some really big wins (and really big losses). O: I'm just chugging along being my usual cautious self, though. x)  Investment is 30K, minimum profit ~2K, max possible 73K. Most likely profit is 40K. |
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Post by doctortomoe on May 16, 2020 3:25:55 GMT -5
I'm going to be sad when the Bank Bribery perk from last years charity corner wears off.
My daily interest is about my average total for 10 food club bets.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on May 16, 2020 14:03:03 GMT -5
I'm going to be sad when the Bank Bribery perk from last years charity corner wears off. My daily interest is about my average total for 10 food club bets. o.o Wow. That explains why you're not as sensitive as I am about tanking lol. I have an Ultimate Riches bank account and still my daily interest + NPs from Trudy is not enough to cover the cost of the bets, if I put max NPs into each bet. So tanking is very upsetting for me because it means a net loss in NPs for the day (unless I put in extra effort to earn back the NPs from games etc). That's why I switched to the safe strategy. Update: Crossblades beat Gooblah. Say whaaaa? Because I covered all possibilities though, I made it out with a tiny profit of ~2K. o.o Next round's odds are good enough to make a guaranteed-profit set again, so I went ahead and bet.  Investment of 50K, minimum profit ~1K, max possible ~19K, most likely 14K. |
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Post by Kat on May 16, 2020 20:02:29 GMT -5
Whoa, first time I got a bust and earned nothing, and that was when I maximized my betting limit. I kinda expected that my streak wouldn't last, so no big. Kinda sad though.
I just have to roll back on betting again (and play games I'm good at to make up for the major loss).
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Post by doctortomoe on May 16, 2020 20:44:39 GMT -5
Yeah, that's one of the rules of Food Club that will always seem to hit.
Right when you think it's a great day, Captain Crossblades ruins everything once again.
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Post by Kat on May 16, 2020 22:45:29 GMT -5
I probably should've inserted a different bet to account for Captain Crossblades ruining everything but oh well.
Everyone seems to be pinning their hopes on Scurvy Dan this time around. Right, I think I can only spare 60-70k for betting today if I want to keep a good chunk of money in the bank, I'll see what I can do tonight. (I like to place my bets at night, my time, so I don't think about them at all and go to bed shortly after.)
EDIT: Was planning to bet around 60k, ended up only using 51,700 because I wanted to play it safe for a while. Also not going with Garet's bets this time because pinning everything on Gooblah really...fell apart and I'm not keen on putting Scurvy Dan on all my bets right now. I am also too tired to math, I did some massive writing and editing today YEETS MY SERIES
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on May 17, 2020 23:01:59 GMT -5
Looks like Scurvy Dan did win today after all, so the people who 10-betted him would have profited quite nicely. I came away with a modest 14K profit though, which I'm fine with. ^^; I probably should've inserted a different bet to account for Captain Crossblades ruining everything but oh well. Don't blame yourself; I don't think any moderate-risk strategy would have had room to cover Crossblades. The way Garet's bets work is that he takes the 80%-ish chance of winning each time and tries to maximize each win. So he tanks probably once a week or so, but the wins are big enough to make up for the losses. While I win pretty much every day, I also sacrifice a lot of potential profit doing so. If I'd followed Garet today and put max NPs into it, for example, I would've profited by 70K instead of 14K. But, that's the sacrifice I make for peace of mind each day. Today's odds are pretty good.  The initial investment I'm putting in is 40K, minimum profit is ~12K, max possible ~51K, most likely ~31K. |
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Post by doctortomoe on May 18, 2020 3:47:53 GMT -5
That's the thing about Captain Crossblades, as part of the bottom 4 pirates, he's almost always completely unexpected. He'll almost never have a day when he's at 2:1, and even if he does, he's usually so weak that it's never a positive arena. There's likely to be a 3:1 or a 4:1 that makes that an okay booster arena, but he'll likely not win.
But, he still has a win percentage of 11%. So that means, on average, twice a month. And it'll almost always be when he's at 13:1.
And unlike some people, who always play longshot bets, since he's not THAT much of a longshot, most people just ignore him. Like, when Stuff-A-Roo or Squire Venable win, it usually gets EVERYONE shocked. It's sort of like rolling a nat 1 on a d20. Everyone just sort of accepts when Stuff or Squire suddenly and randomly hit. Still, it's not uncommon for a bottom 4 pirate to go 3 months without winning. A while ago, on the boards, people were obsessively covering Orvinn the First Mate, when they realized he hadn't won a match in over 80 days, and as an 11% pirate, he was way overdue. When he did finally hit, it was at 13:1.
Crossblades is just slliiigghhhtttly stronger than Orvinn, so he'll hit more often, in the same situation. So, right when you think you have a good bet set going, here comes this Bruce to just ruin your day and take all your money.
Hence, Captain Crossblades ruins everything. He hits just often enough for you to recognize that it's him who ruined your bet.
There are a few other minor weird little quirks that Food Club has. Like, even though Gooblah the Grarrl still wins 2 out of every 3 rounds, no matter what his odds are, and can go on massive winning streaks that reach double digits, he often seems to be the pirate that looses most in 2/13/13/13 arenas when they pop up. Likewise, even though he still does win more often than not, he seems to have a somewhat more even record if he's in an arena with Ned the Skipper. He'll still come out on top more than not, but its not surprising if he looses to Ned.
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Post by doctortomoe on May 18, 2020 18:14:41 GMT -5
And, speak of the devil, today, what happens?
Stuff-A-Roo upsets at 13:1.
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Post by Stephanie (swordlilly) on May 18, 2020 18:31:28 GMT -5
I profited by 51K O: That's a lot by my humble standards xd Odds for tomorrow are looking good, but I'm going to wait for the shifts before I place the actual bets. I'll post here the draft of what I'm thinking, though ^^  Investment is 50K, minimum profit 700np (if Gooblah somehow gets beat rofl... very unlikely), max possible 66K, most likely ~21K. |
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Post by Kat on May 18, 2020 21:40:35 GMT -5
Guess who forgot to place her bets last night because she was too busy destroying a monster series. (It's not really about monsters, it's just the size that's monstrous.) By the time I was done, it was almost midnight and I wanted sleep. Should've placed those bets in the afternoon, ugh.
I need to not bet too much today as I'm running after the Hidden Tower discount on Wednesday, which is tomorrow by my time.
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I found that when I bet with risk, I would keep worrying about it at the back of my mind throughout the day, and if I lost, then my mood would drop. That's why I switched to the safe strategy. But yeah, everyone has different tolerance for risk. ^^;
