The Food Club Alert Board

[Kat]

Thanks for the heads-up. Might play a buncha games for now until we get better odds (and again, until I have a bit more money).

Congrats on getting a profit!

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

As of this morning, Franchisco's competitors went from 6:1, 6:1 and 9:1 to 9:1, 9:1 and 11:1 respectively. So I was able to make a safe set with a modest profit margin:




Hopefully next round the opening odds will be better.

[doctortomoe]

Hasn't been a good day for single arena plays, but it happens. Sometimes there's just a bad run.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

May 10, 2020 19:02:47 GMT -5 doctortomoe said:

Hasn't been a good day for single arena plays, but it happens. Sometimes there's just a bad run.

Yeah, Garet and Sidney tanked today too. I used to follow them but recently started doing my own bets because I really hate tanking. I know that the riskier method pays better in the long run but I value my day-to-day happiness more lol. xP


I profited by 2200 NP today. And next round's odds are looking good so I'm going to go ahead and bet C:



Initial investment is 50K, minimum profit is 9020, max possible is 46,000 NP. Zero chance of tanking. Riskier bettors will probably win like 32:10 or something big haha.

[Liou]

*peeks in*
Heeey nice going with your safe bets!!
Getting smaller wins on a regular basis sounds good, and I might switch to this method - for the moment I keep forgetting to bet, though. oTL

Personally I started following Garet's bets some years ago, because... they're the only bets for which I kinda understand how they work sometimes. xD
I still follow them - when I don't forget to bet altogether -, but only on days when the arenas seem safe enough, sometimes adding a little safety or removing the least trustworthy arena from some bets. Got a few tanks if there's a really unpredictable upset in the positive arenas, but the real big wins make up for those and for all the skip days, and my ROI's still pretty good~

[Kat]

Since I didn't bet yesterday and today looks better, I need to be reminded to slide some bets over before I go to bed in a few hours. So far so good.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Thanks very much, Liou! And that's smart to do your own version of Garet's bets. He's definitely one of the most consistent bettors of all time ^^

Garet, Phoenix and a few others hit it reeeaaally big today. I profited by 46,000 NP though, and am not in the least bit unhappy about that!


Odds for the next round are looking really good! I'm going to wait until morning to place my bets because there are a few shifts I'm anticipating, but I'll post here the draft of what I'm thinking, in case you'd like to follow, Kat.

The initial investment for this set is 50K, and there is no risk of tanking. The minimum return will depend on how low Federismo's price goes. (Currently he is priced at 10:1, which is unusually high in my experience.) The max possible profit is 126,440 as of current odds but may go even higher if Orvinn goes from 11:1 to 13:1. x)

[Kat]

HOLY MOLY GUACAMOLE YOU GUYS...I BET A TOTAL OF 100K AND WON 520K

I'M

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO SAY except thank you all for teaching me the fine art of Food Club.

Also, thank you, Stephanie! Might pull back a bit for this one or check other people's bets to see where I'll sway. Especially now that I used some of my winnings to make an offer on a Von Roo's Castle Stamp on the trading post. It's the only one there so I'm seizing the opportunity to bring my stamp total to a round 20.

[Liou]

Hmm I'm pretty unsure about today's arenas, much pondering.

Stephanie (swordlilly), is there anywhere you explain the proportions of how much NP you put into each bet? That could come in handy for someone who'd like to bet the same as you, proportionally, but on a different overall budget. (and for those who keep track of round numbers more easily x3)

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

I'm so happy for you, Kat! XD Sounds like you followed Garet. Just be careful not to spend all the nps :3 Keep a reserve available in case of dry days. He usually plays with about a 20% risk of tanking (sometimes higher), because he likes to omit the weaker pirates in favor of bigger wins when the stronger pirates win (which they do, statistically more often).


Liou A quick way to copy my set of bets would be to look at my max amount (in this case 8842, which I put on the lowest-odd bet, the 8:1 one). Look at your own max amount, and divide it by 8842. You'll get a fraction. Then just multiply that fraction by all the other amounts you see in the table, and that's the amount you're putting into each bet.

If you'd like to try this style of betting for yourself, without having to wait for me to post, here is what I normally do:

STEP ONE. Choose the 3 best arenas and figure out a set of 10 bets that covers all 12 of the possible outcomes. To take today as an example, the first 4 bets I chose were:

Goob x Tailhook x Sproggie
Goob x Tailhook x Squire
Goob x Tailhook x Puffo
Goob x Tailhook x Orvinn

This basically translates to: If Goob and Tailhook both win, regardless of what happens in Sproggie's arena, I will have a bet that wins.

Now what if Goob doesn't win? That's where you combine Tailhook with the other 3 possible outcomes in Goob's arena:

Tailhook x Fairfax
Tailhook x Lucky
Tailhook x Crossblades

What if Tailhook doesn't win? Then:

Federismo
Peg Leg
Blackbeard

Voila, you've accounted for literally all of the possible outcomes. Regardless of who wins in each arena, you'll have a winning bet.

STEP TWO. Put your max bet amount on the lowest-odd bet (in this case, 8:1) and look at the resulting number. You want your entire set of 10 bets to cost less than that number, because the difference will be your profit if the 8:1 bet ends up being the winning bet. Statistically, the lowest-odd bet is also the likeliest winner.

In order to make the entire set cost less, you adjust the bet amount downwards depending on the odds for each bet. For example, let's say you put 10K on the 8:1 bet. If that bet hits, you get 80K. Now you don't need to put 10K on the 44:1 bet because whatever amount you put in, you get 44 times that back. If you're okay with, say, getting 88K in the rare scenario that the 44:1 bet wins, you can put just 2K on it, saving yourself 8K. So you cut a few K here and there and the entire set winds up costing less than 80K.

Here's where there is some decisionmaking. The more you put on the higher-odd bets, the less of a profit you make if the likeliest bet (the lowest-odd one) hits. But, the more you put on the higher-odd bets, the more you win if a high-odd bet hits. No matter what though, you get a profit.

When you get good at it, the entire process takes about 10 minutes. It's like a daily sudoku puzzle. x)

[Kat]

Thanks, Stephanie. I hit it big again and I'm back to sitting at more than 1M in the bank. I only spent 60k on bets yesterday (because it's already Wednesday here) and made sure I had a reserve amount in the bank. I'll only raise the amount I bet on days of good odds...or when I can afford to shell out a bit more.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Congrats!!!


My Goob x Tailhook x Orvinn bet ended up being the one to hit, and it closed at 48:1. o: I profited by nearly 150K, a lot more than I was expecting.

Next round's opening odds look bad and Garet announced a skip round. I might try to make a set from the updated odds in the morning, but for now I'm thinking to skip too.

[doctortomoe]

I'd call this a skip round too.

I wouldn't even say it's a safe 10-bet Gooblah the Grarrl round, because the 3:1 in that arena has 4 more food advantage than he does.

It may be worth trying to 10-bet Federismo though. He has the highest food adjustment, and the other pirates in his arena are weak.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Sidney's bets are up. She is betting primarily on Gooblah and Federismo, but also covered 3 potential upsets.


As for me... I'm going to be a total scaredy-cat as usual.

The 3:1 in Gooblah's arena turned into 4:1, and two of Federismo's competitors went from 4:1 and 5:1 to 5:1 and 6:1 respectively. So I was able to do this:



The initial investment is 44,000 NP. The minimum 'profit' is a whopping four NP. xd But the maximum is 25,880, so I figured I'd still put in the effort to bet.

[Stephanie (swordlilly)]

Yesterday, Garet skipped, Sidney broke even, and Phoenix hit it big. I got a tiny profit.


Today, a lot of people are ten-betting Gooblah. Too risky for meeee. Here's what I'm doing today:




Investment of 50K, no risk of tanking. Most likely outcome is a modest 20K profit.