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Post by Coaster on Jan 15, 2015 16:58:19 GMT -5
So, uh, one thing I want to try to point out, if I'm understanding it... All this speculation puts Cassie as the Arsonist at worst ( which can win with and work for benefit of the town overall despite having already doused a probably-innocent Christos EDIT: Nevermind, apparently can only win with evil/neutrals) and Detective at best (in which case we really don't want to cause a death here), and puts Ginz as the Spy at best (which I have a little trouble believing because of some chats I've had with folks, but then again, there could be a duplicate from the Random) and Sorcerer at worst (which can only win with evil or other neutrals). Overall it's a safer bet to execute Ginz than Cassie if we're going to go for one of them--I still would like to have the Mafia and the Sorcerer (and the Werewolf in the long run) taken out first, because they're the ones that can't win with the Town alive. Meanwhile, we have the claim that Pixie is suspicious (assuming she wasn't hit by the Framer), which we can act on in the next day if it turns out Cassie doesn't die and/or turns out to have been the Detective after all (if she isn't the Detective, we can probably disregard the claim), but splitting the vote right now really doesn't help anyone--it just takes the focus away from the main conflict. The reason that's a big deal is that if we don't have seven people all voting for any one person, the whole bid goes into Ranumgen's hands, and from what it sounds like, that means the voters are the ones at risk (see edit). (Not to mention that everyone's one-off votes for Jay or Draco or PFA or whoever else will be wide open to the public the next day, as well.) EDIT again: So we may end up just delaying this issue for another day or two while acting on rumors that are as yet baseless, while either the Sorcerer or Arsonist keeps running amok for one or two more nights (this one for sure, and possibly the next if we get it wrong). Also, is there word from Avery about whether the Spy sees the roles or the names of all visitors, and whether the Sorcerer picks a role or a name to control?
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Post by Thundy on Jan 15, 2015 17:03:50 GMT -5
Gosh this is all complicated. Although I had an idea, of a plan so dastardly and so genius it would shock you to your very core, yet it at the same time it's so simple: I'm gonna hunker down at the bar, have a beer and wait for it to all blow over!
You're all welcome to join me (well, as long as you're not planning to like, y'know, murder me or something)
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Post by Avery on Jan 15, 2015 17:14:35 GMT -5
So, uh, one thing I want to try to point out, if I'm understanding it... All this speculation puts Cassie as the Arsonist at worst (which can win with and work for benefit of the town overall despite having already doused a probably-innocent Christos) and Detective at best (in which case we really don't want to cause a death here), and puts Ginz as the Spy at best (which I have a little trouble believing because of some chats I've had with folks, but then again, there could be a duplicate from the Random) and Sorcerer at worst (which can only win with evil or other neutrals). Overall it's a safer bet to execute Ginz than Cassie if we're going to go for one of them--I still would like to have the Mafia and the Sorcerer (and the Werewolf in the long run) taken out first, because they're the ones that can't win with the Town alive. Meanwhile, we have the claim that Pixie is suspicious (assuming she wasn't hit by the Framer), which we can act on in the next day if it turns out Cassie doesn't die and/or turns out to have been the Detective after all (if she isn't the Detective, we can probably disregard the claim), but splitting the vote right now really doesn't help anyone. Also, is there word from Avery about whether the Spy sees the roles or the names of all visitors, and whether the Sorcerer picks a role or a name to control? A couple notes! 1. The Arsonist CANNOT win with town. Only him/herself and neutrals. 2. The spy sees names of all visitors, not roles. The Sorcerer picks names, not roles. No one in this game select roles.
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Post by Coaster on Jan 15, 2015 17:25:51 GMT -5
A couple notes! 1. The Arsonist CANNOT win with town. Only him/herself and neutrals. 2. The spy sees names of all visitors, not roles. The Sorcerer picks names, not roles. No one in this game select roles. Thanks for the clarification! (EDIT: So the Arsonist needs the Mafia dead too, I guess? Whereas the Sorcerer can leave the Mafia alive?) So it sounds like regardless of whether Ginz is the Spy or the Sorcerer, she knows that it was Cassie that visited Christos, but not what for. If Ginz was the Spy and Cassie was in fact the Detective, Ginz would have also seen the identity of the Arsonist separately from Cassie. Under this assumption that both are innocent, Ginz would have revealed a third party as a possible suspect rather than only pinning the blame on Cassie. So it's strongly implied that either Ginz is the Sorcerer (in which case she only would have seen Cassie's action, being the one that determined it) or Cassie is the Arsonist (and therefore the only visitor). (That is, unless they're both innocent and just not strategizing very well, or both guilty and we have some baseless claims going around.) So we're basically at square one? xD I still think the Sorcerer is more immediately dangerous than the Arsonist (at worst, Ginz is the Spy and Cassie only got one casualty if she asplodes people tonight), and either way, we're almost guaranteed one or the other at this point. EDIT: There's also the possibility that Ginz herself was the Arsonist, in which case picking Cassie was just a lucky guess at something useful, or that Arsonist-Ginz is in cahoots with the as-yet-unknown Sorcerer. (She did claim to have been doused that night, but for all we know she did nothing instead and lied to cover her tracks.)
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Post by Mostly Harmless (flufflepuff) on Jan 15, 2015 17:44:34 GMT -5
Man am I so living up to my namesake right now I'm just saying.
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Post by Draco on Jan 15, 2015 17:46:06 GMT -5
*starts a fire*
For the record, it's for a BBQ!
*starts grilling a steak*
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Post by Coaster on Jan 15, 2015 17:47:39 GMT -5
*starts a fire* For the record, it's for a BBQ! *starts grilling a steak* *starts grilling some cabbage rolls alongside*
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Post by The Scrac that Smiles Back on Jan 15, 2015 18:19:54 GMT -5
*starts a fire* For the record, it's for a BBQ! *starts grilling a steak* Let's do some hot dogs too!
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Post by Jayeee on Jan 15, 2015 19:06:01 GMT -5
((I wrote this post a while ago, but it didn't seem like it was needed because votes were happening anyway, but since there is so much confusion here is a response to the first post that Cassie made after being accused of being The Arsonist)) See, I know for a fact that the night Christos was doused, someone who visited him left a clue: a couple strands of pink fluffy hair, unlike any human's. So that's all I know. Take it or leave it. But if I'm gonna die, I'd rather not die in vain. *pulls at her own hair for loose strands and lets them fly off with the wind into the snow* I'm a brunette. It's Pixie we might want to...investigate. Last round she was quite wordy about the death, something completely unrelated, and then fell silent, almost as if to hide something. Also, the night Christos was doused, I was controlled by a sorcerer, told to visit someone else. I stated this in round one. I don't know who that someone was, but if what Ginz said was true, then the only way she could have known I visited him, IF I did.... Was if she was the sorcerer. After all, she said she knew that for a FACT. Not to mention more than one person visited him. My mascot holds many things in her fluff, but fire isn't one of them. Ahem... Please allow me to revert back to The Leading Man for just a moment as I take a closer look at all this tomfoolery! Your claims just don't seem to add up. They could go one of two ways, since you've been ambiguous about some things. 1. You visited or were forced by the Sorcerer to visit Christos. If this was the case then that would back up your claim that 'more than one person visited him', but you're also denying that the pink fluff Ginz says she found is yours. 2. You visited or were forced to visit somebody else. If this was the case, then your claim of that pink hair not being yours would be true, but the claim that 'more than one person visited him' is not something you could know. Your claim to knowing that more than one person visited Christos suggests to me that you definitely did visit him. Which still opens you up to being the Arsonist because you've been so ambiguous about it and haven't told us anything concrete. On top of that, you're trying to lie your way out of Ginz's findings being your hair despite the fact that your ' mascot' is a bright pink pony, which fits the bill completely. AND you've also tried to deflect some blame onto Pixie. ((A bit from reading through the rest)) I would completely disagree with Coaster that Sorcerer is more dangerous. If Cassie is Arsonist and we DON'T kill her, that is more than likely two innocent casualties as a result (Ginz and then Christos). If Ginz is Sorcerer and we don't kill her, that's one innocent (Cassie). Surely it's logical to kill the MASS KILLING ROLE, rather than the one that switches roles around a little bit??? Looking at that very first post I quoted about, Cassie's ambiguous claims were contradicting one another, and she also flat-out lied about one of them AND then went on to try and point the finger at a 3rd person too. That shows complete and utter desperation to me, and that is why I voted the way I did.
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Post by Mostly Harmless (flufflepuff) on Jan 15, 2015 19:35:19 GMT -5
Sigh.
I didn't know it was Christos I visited. I still don't. But it seems likely based on what Ginz told us.
I denied it back then simply because I didn't know, but I thought about it, and yes, it seems possible.
And I'm not playing as flufflepuff. I never was for this game.
I'm sticking to my claim as detective. It's up to you to take it or leave it.
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Post by Jayeee on Jan 15, 2015 20:13:19 GMT -5
Sigh. I didn't know it was Christos I visited. I still don't. But it seems likely based on what Ginz told us. I denied it back then simply because I didn't know, but I thought about it, and yes, it seems possible. And I'm not playing as flufflepuff. I never was for this game. I'm sticking to my claim as detective. It's up to you to take it or leave it. If that is true, then you couldn't possibly know that more than one person visited Christos that night! The only person that it was claimed visited Christos was The Arsonist (which Christos said himself). If you didn't know that you visited him, then how the heck could you have known that multiple people visited Christos that night? I don't see how you could...
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Post by Coaster on Jan 15, 2015 20:20:20 GMT -5
((Yeah, just a note, "in-character" attempts to pin blame are confusing from everyone involved and watching, so it'd be helpful for future reference if folks would just state clearly what their case is... maybe less fun, but. xD I don't think the "pink hair" and "denying the pink hair" really has any basis here, for instance, other than as "Ginz claims it was Cassie/Flufflepuff that visited Christos".)) Also, good point, Jayeee; I was thinking of it from the perspective that the Arsonist is essentially harmless while they're dousing, but there's no reason for them not to just pull the trigger and kill both parties now that their head's on the chopping block. Also, from what Carrie said (unless more clarification is needed), it seems the Arsonist needs both Mafia and Town dead, so they have no reason to solely go after innocents (given that the Mafia helps them do their job, indirectly), whereas the Sorcerer only needs the Town dead and has more incentive to do things that waste their moves or get them killed. Plus there's also the potential that Ginz was the Arsonist and had a lucky guess, in which case there would be two victims anyways. So at the moment I'm kind of ambivalent to who to vote for as long as we are close enough to kill someone without Ranumgen. xD Whether Cassie's telling the truth or not, voting for Pixie right now is counterproductive at best, not to mention baseless until the results of this round provide further evidence.
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Post by Mostly Harmless (flufflepuff) on Jan 15, 2015 20:34:16 GMT -5
Jayeee, if you were investigated, you wouldn't know who investigated you unless Carrie said something. So Christos wouldn't even know I was there. I'm not the arsonist, and did not douse Christos. So if I visited him, which, according to Ginz, may be true, then it was he who was investigated. However, he was also doused that night. So there's me. And then there's the arsonist. That's two people. I'm just trying to make it simple.
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Post by Draco on Jan 15, 2015 20:47:59 GMT -5
A spy is a good person to have around. Heck, two spies are almost as good as two detectives. Learning who visited who and stuff... So if Christos was visited by several people the first night, what about the more important second night when someone actually died? Hmmm? The arsonist is dangerous, yes... But we have other killers to worry about I think.
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Post by Jayeee on Jan 15, 2015 20:48:30 GMT -5
Jayeee, if you were investigated, you wouldn't know who investigated you unless Carrie said something. So Christos wouldn't even know I was there. I'm not the arsonist, and did not douse Christos. So if I visited him, which, according to Ginz, may be true, then it was he who was investigated. However, he was also doused that night. So there's me. And then there's the arsonist. That's two people. I'm just trying to make it simple. I'm sorry, but this is FULL of contradictions to what you'd claimed earlier. In your very first post you said: "Not to mention more than one person visited him." We know that 1 person visited him: The Arsonist. You said at a later point that when you made that initial post, you didn't know that you'd visited Christos. You also pointed the finger to Ginz being the Sorcerer at that time (so by your claims, that'd mean that she didn't visit Christos either). That means: The Arsonist visited Christos (1). That is it. That is all you would have been aware of when you claimed that more than one person visited him. You weren't aware that you did, and you also believed Ginz to be the Sorcerer, so she didn't either. So again, you couldn't possibly have known that more than one person visited Christos that night when you claimed it, and so I therefore think you're lying about it, that you visited Christos as The Arsonist (under the influence of the Sorcerer) and Ginz caught you doing it.
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